Since lockdown measures were imposed in Britain in March of this year, uncertainty over the forward demand profile of potato markets has grown and grown, says Senior Analyst at AHDB, Alice Bailey.
AHDB has pieced together its opinion on current and future supply and demand profiles to begin a wider discussion on the forward profile of potato markets. Key points are in the article below.
“We will constantly review and update as new information becomes available and circumstances change,” says Alice Bailey, author of the report.
- 2019/20 total availability is estimated at 2.21Mt, including total domestic production and imported fresh potatoes. This could potentially increase to 2.35Mt in 2020/21.
- 2020/21 production is forecast to rise based on a 5% planted area increase and 3-year average yields.
- Total domestic consumption is predicted back slightly for 2019/20 compared to 2018/19 based on a considerable drop in requirement of fresh potatoes by the food service sector outweighing the rise in retail demand.
- The 2020/21 food service estimate is that there will be a continued drop in demand but uses a base of a 4-year average.
- A drop in total availability of processing material is expected in 2019/20 following a significant drop in imported material.
- A drop in demand is also expected in 2019/20 with the food service sector expecting to have dropped demand significantly for the final quarter of the season. Again the expected rise in demand from the retail sector for processed products is outweighed by the drop from food service.
- There is a continued expectation of loss in demand into the 2020/21 season with retail potentially moving back to more