By Lukie Pieterse, editor/publisher Potato News Today
Water supply, soil moisture, and irrigation demand are emerging as early-season concerns for several U.S. potato-growing states, though impacts remain uneven across the national crop.
As the 2026 U.S. potato season moves into planting and early crop development, drought is becoming a significant watchpoint across several important production regions. The pressure is not uniform. Some major potato states are facing severe or even extreme drought classifications, while others have benefited from recent moisture and currently show limited drought exposure.
According to Drought.gov, 52.4% of the 50 U.S. states and Puerto Rico is currently classified in moderate drought or worse, based on the U.S. Drought Monitor. The Monitor defines drought intensity from D1 to D4, with D4 indicating exceptional drought. The map is produced jointly by the National Drought Mitigation Centre, USDA, NOAA and NASA, and is released every Thursday with data valid through Tuesday morning.
For potato growers, the issue is not simply whether a region appears dry on a national map. The real concern is how drought intersects with planting conditions, stored soil moisture, snowpack, reservoir levels, groundwater availability, irrigation costs, tuber initiation, bulking, and the ability to meet quality specifications for fresh, processing and seed markets.
The major production belt is exposed, but not evenly
The U.S. potato industry’s exposure to drought is concentrated in states that matter greatly to national supply. USDA’s April 2026 Potato Stocks report shows Idaho produced 138.38 million cwt of potatoes from the 2025 crop, Washington 87.19 million cwt, Wisconsin 28.81 million cwt, Oregon 26.04 million cwt, North Dakota 24.84 million cwt, Colorado 23.02 million cwt, Michigan 20.66 million cwt, Maine 17.39 million cwt and Minnesota 16.67 million cwt. The same report showed total 2025 U.S. potato production at 412.86 million cwt.
This means drought in Idaho, Washington, Oregon, Colorado, Nebraska and Maine deserves particular attention. It also means the market picture cannot be judged simply by the worst drought maps. Some major potato areas are irrigated and can buffer short-term rainfall deficits, while others rely more heavily on rainfall or have fewer water-management options.
Idaho remains the most important state to watch. Drought.gov currently lists 75.5% of Idaho in D1-D4 drought, including 37.3% in severe drought, 5.7% in extreme drought and 4.2% in exceptional drought. Idaho also recorded its 25th driest January-March period since 1895, with precipitation 1.97 inches below normal.
Oregon is also under substantial drought pressure, with 70.8% of the state in D1-D4 drought, including 29.6% in severe drought. Oregon’s January-March period ranked as the state’s 13th driest on record, with precipitation 4.13 inches below normal.
Washington, the second-largest potato-producing state and a key processing supplier, is in a more moderate but still relevant position. Drought.gov shows 42.6% of Washington in D1-D4 drought, with 40.4% in moderate drought and 2.3% in severe drought. Washington’s potato sector depends heavily on irrigated production, so the key question is not only spring rainfall but the condition of water supplies feeding the Columbia Basin and other irrigated growing areas.
Colorado and Nebraska are more sharply exposed. Colorado has 98.3% of its area in D1-D4 drought, including 36.0% in extreme drought and 21.9% in exceptional drought. Colorado also recorded its 4th driest January-March period since 1895. Nebraska has 88.3% of its area in D1-D4 drought, including 55.8% in extreme drought.
Maine, the major potato state in the Northeast, is another area of concern. Drought.gov currently places 85.9% of Maine in D1-D4 drought, with 22.0% in severe drought. The state recorded its 4th driest January-March period since 1895, with precipitation 3.52 inches below normal.
Topsoil moisture tells a more nuanced story
The latest USDA Crop Progress report shows that drought classification and immediate field moisture are not always identical. As of the week ending April 19, Colorado reported 92% of topsoil moisture as short or very short, while Nebraska reported 82%, Texas 63%, Florida 56% and Maine 32%. By contrast, Idaho reported 19%, Oregon 15%, Washington 8%, North Dakota 7%, Wisconsin 1% and Michigan 0% in short or very short topsoil moisture.
This distinction matters. In some irrigated western potato regions, growers may begin the season with manageable field conditions but still face longer-term water-supply risk as the crop moves into tuber initiation and bulking. In drier rainfed or partly irrigated areas, the immediate concern may be more direct: dry seedbeds, uneven emergence, early irrigation demand, or limited rainfall to support crop establishment.
For growers, dry spring conditions can be a mixed blessing. They may allow timely fieldwork and planting, but if dryness persists, it can quickly become a production risk. Potatoes are shallow-rooted compared with many field crops, and maintaining stable soil moisture is especially important during tuber initiation and bulking.
Why water stress matters so much in potatoes
Potatoes are particularly vulnerable to water stress because yield and quality are shaped by relatively narrow moisture windows during specific growth stages. University of Maine Extension notes that drought stress during tuber initiation and early tuber development can reduce quality, increase sugar concentration and promote common scab, while stress during mid-bulking has the greatest effect on total yield.
University of Idaho guidance similarly notes that potatoes are especially sensitive to water stress during tuber initiation and early tuber development, when deficits can reduce U.S. No. 1 yields by increasing rough and misshapen tubers. Water stress during tuber bulking tends to affect total yield more than quality.
This is why the current drought situation is not just a water-volume issue. It is also a market-quality issue. Processing growers need tubers that meet contract specifications for size, solids, fry colour and defect levels. Fresh market growers need uniform size, skin finish and appearance. Seed growers need healthy, vigorous crops that can be managed carefully through the season and into storage.
Florida and Texas face stronger immediate drought intensity, but smaller national potato weight
Florida and Texas are not as large as Idaho, Washington, Oregon or Wisconsin in total production, but they are important for seasonal fresh-market supply. Both are currently under serious drought pressure.
Drought.gov shows 99.0% of Florida in D1-D4 drought, including 54.0% in extreme drought and 22.7% in exceptional drought. Florida’s January-March period ranked as the state’s 9th driest on record, with precipitation 4.50 inches below normal.
Texas is also under significant pressure, with 75.9% of the state in D1-D4 drought, including 37.2% in severe drought, 19.8% in extreme drought and 1.4% in exceptional drought.
For these southern spring-crop areas, drought can increase irrigation demand, raise pumping costs and intensify heat-related crop stress. Depending on crop stage, this can affect sizing, skin finish and marketable yield. The national supply impact may be smaller than in the Northwest, but local and regional growers can still face real financial pressure.
The Upper Midwest currently looks less exposed
The drought picture is less severe across parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes potato belt. Wisconsin currently has only 1.6% of its area in D1-D4 drought, Michigan has 0.0%, and North Dakota has 0.0%. Minnesota is more exposed than those states, with 20.8% in D1-D4 drought, including 1.2% in severe drought.
This does not remove risk for the season ahead. It simply means the drought signal is currently stronger in the West, Plains, Northeast and southern fresh-crop regions than in much of the Upper Midwest. Potato growers in these less affected states will still watch rainfall timing closely as planting advances and the crop enters key growth stages.
Storage and market context add another layer
The drought story is developing against a market backdrop that is already being watched closely. USDA reported that potatoes held in storage on April 1, 2026 totalled 127 million cwt, down 1% from April 1, 2025. Potatoes in storage accounted for 31% of the 2025 crop, unchanged from the same period a year earlier. Season-to-date disappearance was down 2%, while processors in the eight reporting states had used 153 million cwt for the season, up 3% from April 2025.
That does not point to a drought-driven supply shock at this stage. It does, however, mean the industry is entering the new crop season with limited room for complacency. If drought persists into the summer in the Northwest, Colorado, Nebraska or Maine, market attention could shift quickly from planting progress to irrigation reliability, tuber sizing, quality risks and contract fulfilment.
What growers are likely watching now
For potato growers in drought-affected states, the immediate priorities are practical rather than theoretical. They include monitoring soil moisture before and after planting, verifying irrigation system readiness, checking water allocations where surface water is involved, reviewing power and pumping costs, and adjusting irrigation timing to avoid stress during tuber initiation.
Growers may also need to pay closer attention to common scab risk in dry soils, seed-piece health under dry planting conditions, and the possibility of uneven emergence where seedbeds lack moisture. In processing regions, the larger concern will come later if drought persists into bulking, when tuber size and yield are more directly at stake.
The 2026 drought has not yet written the story of the U.S. potato crop. But it has already changed the tone of the season. In several key states, water management is moving from routine planning to strategic risk control. For growers, processors and buyers, the next six to ten weeks will matter greatly. A timely shift to wetter conditions could ease the pressure.
A continuation of dry weather into summer would place several potato regions under much sharper production and quality stress.
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