As the world grows towards 10 billion people, creating greater natural resource constraints, and as new technologies change our lives and our possibilities more than ever before, the global fertilizer industry wishes to define its place in this future.
To help do this, the International Fertilizer Association (IFA) embarked on a long-range strategic planning process using scenario planning methodologies. Says the IFA: “We focused on the most pressing issues facing the fertilizer industry as a way to extend thinking and test preparedness; a ‘wind tunnel’ for designing industry-wide and company-specific approaches that are informed, robust and anticipatory.”
An important part of the IFA2030 strategic review process is to consider how the world may change in the run up to 2030 and beyond and the impact this might have for the fertilizer industry. How society might change is one of the most important factors under consideration in the four future scenarios. From trade and finance to diets and agriculture, here are 10 social trends the IFA says could have a considerable impact on the world (and the fertilizer industry) in 2030:
- China will be the world’s largest economy
- 34 countries will have ‘super-aged’ populations
- 41 megacities will collectively contain 9% of the world’s population, with all but one in Asia or Africa
- The global middle class will number about 4.9 billion people, around 66% of whom will live in Asia, and 80% in what is currently considered the developing world
- 60% of the world’s population will live in urban areas due to rapid urbanization
- Automation could have replaced up to 800 million jobs worldwide
- India will have overtaken China as the most populous country
- Developing countries will account for an estimated 57% of global GDP by 2030
- The world population is expected to be 8.6 billion people, from 7.6 billion today
- 65% of children entering primary school in 2016 will work in completely new job types that don’t currently exist
