China’s marketing year (MY) 2021/22 fresh potato production is forecast at 94 million metric tons, a 5 percent decrease over MY2020/21 primarily due to decreased acreage. According to a recent report issued by the USDA’s Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN), China’s MY2021/22 frozen French fries (FFF) production is forecast higher by 20 percent at 420,000 metric tons (MT).
The report, prepared by Alexandra Baych and Juliana Madrid, says the expected increase is in response to international logistics disruptions that led to lower imports and increased export demand by China’s neighbors. China’s MY2021/22 FFF imports are forecast higher by 5 percent at 84,000 MT assuming international logistics improve by the middle of
calendar year 2022.
China’s MY2021/22 FFF exports are forecast at 40,000 MT, about a 10 percent decrease from the estimated 45,000 MT in MY2020/21. According to China Customs data, China’s FFF exports in the first 10 months of MY2020/21 totaled 39,929 MT, about a 75 percent increase from the same period the previous year, mainly driven by the strong demand from the Philippines. Traders report that China’s FFF is price competitive with U.S. and European FFF.
According to industry sources, a new french fry production line will be put into production in MY2021/22 in Inner Mongolia. Frozen French fry producers in China are expected to expand their production as much as possible to make up for the reduction of imports.