Middle East war raises the stakes for potato growers as fertilizer, fuel, and freight pressures intensify

By Lukie Pieterse, editor/publisher Potato News Today

As Middle East tensions disrupt key input and transport flows, the global potato industry is facing a sharper and more immediate cost squeeze.

The impact of the Middle East war on agriculture has become more immediate and more concrete since Potato News Today first reported on the issue on March 14. What was then a growing risk has, by late March, become a live operational challenge.

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been badly disrupted, fertilizer trade has tightened further, energy prices remain elevated, and freight and packaging costs are increasingly exposed to the turmoil. For the potato industry in the United States and globally, that means higher costs, tighter margins, and more uncertainty across the supply chain.

What has changed since the earlier story

The most important update is that the crisis has moved beyond a warning phase. Reuters reported on March 26 that Maersk is now maintaining food and medicine flows through alternative Gulf land-bridge routes because shipping in the Gulf has been brought near a standstill. The company said it has prioritized food, medicines, and chilled and frozen cargo, while also warning that rising fuel, insurance, and transport costs are lifting overall logistics prices.

A day later, Reuters reported that the United Nations was setting up a task force to design a mechanism to keep trade moving through Hormuz because of mounting concern over food shortages, fertilizer disruption, and wider humanitarian consequences.

That shift matters to potatoes because this crop depends on more than field production alone. Potatoes move through storage, processing, cold-chain logistics, and often long export or domestic transport routes. When emergency shipping workarounds become necessary for food cargo, that is a clear sign that the operating environment for perishable and processed food supply chains has become more fragile and more expensive.

Why potatoes are especially exposed

Potatoes are particularly sensitive to disruptions in fertilizer supply and pricing. Reuters reported on March 17 that one-third of global fertilizer trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, that Middle East urea export prices had jumped about 40% from pre-war levels, and that U.S. fertilizer prices had risen by as much as 32% since the conflict began.

Reuters also reported on March 24 that Russia had suspended ammonium nitrate exports until April 21, adding another layer of pressure to already-tight nitrogen markets.

For potato growers, that is not a minor issue. University of Minnesota Extension notes that potatoes have a shallow root system and a relatively high demand for many nutrients, while University of Maine Extension states that fertilizers are applied when soil-available nutrients are not adequate for production goals.

In plain language, potatoes are a crop that responds strongly to nutrient availability, which means fertilizer disruption can affect both cost structures and, if prolonged, agronomic decisions tied to yield and quality.

The U.S. picture: tighter margins rather than clear acreage shifts – at least for now

In the United States, the strongest public evidence so far points to rising cost pressure rather than a confirmed immediate change in potato acreage. Reuters reported on March 27 that the war has already altered broader U.S. planting intentions, with fewer corn acres and more soybeans expected because fertilizer and fuel costs have surged. Potatoes are not as easy to swap out as major row crops because they are tied to seed supply, storage planning, processor contracts, specialized equipment, and fixed rotations. That makes the more likely short-term effect a margin squeeze rather than a rapid acreage response.

USDA’s latest Farm Production Cost Report adds to that pressure signal. For the week ending March 20, USDA reported an average delivered farm diesel price of $5.29 per gallon. In a crop such as potatoes – where fuel matters in field preparation, planting, spraying, irrigation, harvest, and postharvest handling – elevated diesel prices reinforce the broader cost squeeze already coming from fertilizer and freight.

Storage, processing, and packaging are now part of the story too

The potato industry also faces a second-round effect that is less obvious in many other crops. A large share of potatoes must be stored, conditioned, processed, refrigerated, or transported over extended periods. Reuters reported on March 27 that Brent crude has surged more than 50% since the war began and that analysts expect energy prices to remain high under a range of scenarios. If energy stays elevated, that can raise costs not only on the farm, but also in storage buildings, processing plants, and refrigerated transport.

Packaging is becoming another pressure point. Reuters reported on March 26 that disruptions to petrochemical flows through Hormuz have pushed plastics and polymer prices to roughly four-year highs, with the Middle East accounting for more than 40% of polyethylene exports in 2025. For the potato trade, that matters because plastic-based materials remain widely used in fresh produce packaging, frozen-food bags, and other food-pack formats.

The full effect on potato packaging costs is not yet publicly quantified, but the direction is clear.

The global impact reaches beyond the United States

The international picture is also becoming clearer. Reuters reported that Brazil has warned of broader fertilizer risks if the conflict persists, while India is actively seeking additional fertilizer supplies from Russia, Belarus, and Morocco to avoid shortfalls ahead of summer planting. In Ukraine, Reuters reported on March 27 that spring sowing is continuing, but fertilizer prices there have risen 30% – 35%, with domestic urea prices up 65% since the start of the year and diesel prices also sharply higher.

These examples show that the war’s effects are not confined to one region or one commodity – they are feeding into agricultural decision-making across multiple producing systems.

For the global potato industry, the implication is straightforward. Even where potato acreage has not yet measurably changed, the economics of producing, storing, processing, and moving potatoes have become more difficult. Higher fertilizer prices raise production costs. Higher diesel and energy prices lift storage and processing costs. Shipping disruption affects exports, imported inputs, and delivery schedules. Plastic inflation threatens packaging budgets.

This is now a broad cost-and-logistics story, not simply an oil-market story.

What the potato sector should watch next

As of March 28, there is still no clear public evidence that the war has already caused a measurable change in U.S. potato acreage. But that is no longer the only question that matters. The stronger evidence now points to rising operational strain: tighter fertilizer markets, elevated energy prices, costlier logistics, and a more fragile flow of goods through one of the world’s most important trade chokepoints.

If the disruption continues into April and beyond, the potato industry may face still harder decisions on input buying, storage economics, processor margins, export competitiveness, and consumer pricing.